The World Economic Forum (WEF) has published its Global Risks Report 2024 which examines the most critical risks anticipated in the coming decade against a backdrop of rapid technological change, economic uncertainty, a warming planet and conflict.
Once again, environmental risks have claimed top positions in the WEF's ranking of global risks, alarmingly surpassing the cost-of-living crisis this year. The report emphasises unprecedented heat conditions, drought, wildfires, and floods, indicating that environmental risks may reach a critical point with no possibility of reversal. It predicts that the focus will be increasingly on reversing climate change, as opposed to mere decarbonisation, and points to technological solutions such as geoengineering.
However, the report flags that emerging technologies may also give rise to significant externalities and raise questions around accountability. Whilst geospatial engineering has the potential to directly extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and cool the climate, the WEF warns that it might bring unintended consequences such as changes in regional precipitation patterns or counteract the intended effect by contributing to extreme weather. There is also a concern that the focus on capturing fossil fuel emissions could slow down efforts to fight climate change through emission reduction strategies that are ultimately more sustainable in the long-term. Furthermore, adverse outcomes resulting from the implementation of geoengineering may contribute to a surge in climate-related litigation and geopolitical tensions. This is because determining accountability for the outcomes of an engineered climate, as well as distinguishing whether specific consequences stem from engineered climate interventions or natural climate change, will prove exceptionally challenging.
The report provides a more optimistic outlook on the efficacy of research and development, arguing that it can boost preparedness for inevitable environmental risks. Creating a global data commons for climate science, as well as further investment in remote sensing and computing power, have been highlighted as some of the potential catalysts for enhancing environmental resilience and readiness. According to the WEF, research advancements leading to feasible nuclear fusion power generation could also mark a pivotal moment. This development would not only deliver almost limitless clean energy but also expedite the shift to net-zero, simultaneously diminishing the risk of pollution (it is noteworthy that the UK government has committed to having a nuclear fusion plant of this nature operational by 2040).
Artificial intelligence, despite its inherent complexities, has also been recognised as a technology that could transform materials science and help us make substantial progress in terms of batteries, solar panels and other advancements that will be crucial in addressing a myriad of different risks examined by the WEF.
The WEF looks at technology as a double-edged sword, presenting challenges while also offering solutions to global risks. Evolving more rapidly than regulation, producers are cautioned to assume responsibility, prioritise transparency, and exercise restraint in the introduction of new frontier models. However, the WEF encourages more regulation on environmental, social and governance (ESG) reporting - a trajectory that techUK is confident will persist throughout 2024.
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