EXPERT COMMENT
But they move Israel and the ‘axis of resistance' closer to a wider war - a conflict that each side knows it cannot win.
Events in the Middle East during July point to a striking paradox: Israel and the Iran-led ‘axis of resistance' are inching closer to a catastrophic regional war - yet the war remains unlikely, because neither side wants it. Is that mutual apprehension enough to prevent the worst from happening?
Even the most seasoned observer of the region can't answer that question with confidence. But one thing everyone can agree on is that Israel's alleged killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, and its assassination of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Lebanon do nothing to lower the temperature.
It will seriously disrupt and delay negotiations between Israel and Hamas over a ceasefire, and therefore the release of Israeli hostages. And it will ensure the continuation of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah.
To make matters worse, the elimination of Haniyeh doesn't hurt Hamas much. He was a politician based in Qatar, running the group's messaging and finances. His killing is hugely symbolic, no doubt, and a political win for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but he had no say over the group's willingness and ability to fight. That remains the prerogative of Yahya Sinwar, the group's leader who is based in Gaza and has been calling all the shots since 2017.
As far as Hezbollah is concerned, the organization has a deep bench. It has been able to replace far more influential commanders than Shukr, including Imad Mughniyeh and Mustafa Badreddine. Its military capacity remains intact.
Click here to continue reading the full version of this Expert Comment on the Chatham House website.