EXPERT COMMENT
With a COP28 deal to transition away from fossil fuels, speeding up the energy transition and economic diversification will help Gulf countries protect the needs of future generations and avoid costly consequences of delayed action.
COP28 in Dubai marked the second time a COP has been hosted in the Gulf region since 2012. The selection of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as host raised questions not only about its ability to deliver on the COP agenda but also drew attention to its socio-economic context and its equitable contribution to addressing climate change.
Concerns about the credibility of the UAE as COP28 host were due to its status as a major oil producer and the appointment of Dr Sultan al-Jaber, the head of the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), as COP28 president-designate. Serious questions were raised as to whether the UAE and its oil-producing neighbours were genuinely committed to meaningful action, as opposed to engaging in lobbying and greenwashing during COP discussions.
The Gulf region is home to approximately 30 per cent of global petroleum reserves and 20 per cent of total natural gas reserves. While Gulf countries are adopting efforts to speed up economic diversification, oil and gas exports still dominate their export profiles and government revenues.
The Gulf region is also at the forefront of extreme climate challenges, and oil and gas resources have played a key role in helping these countries cope with such challenges. The UAE experienced a 50°C heat record in July 2023, a temperature that is becoming more common in a region that heats twice as fast as the rest of the world. The climate summit itself experienced warmer-than-normal December temperatures.
Climate models suggest, in a worst-case scenario, the region will experience a heating of 5°C by the end of the century, exacerbating existing challenges such as water scarcity, desertification, biodiversity loss and food security, as well as extreme weather events such as sand and dust storms.
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