Ukraines gamble in Kursk restores belief it can beat Russia it requires a Western response

From: Chatham House
Published: Mon Aug 19 2024


EXPERT COMMENT

The surprise raid has put talk of concessions to Moscow on hold. Kyiv hopes it will also defuse fears of Russian escalation.

Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region, while in full compliance with its right to self-defence, caught both Russia and the West by surprise. The raid was a model of operational security.

The Ukrainian leadership seems to have learnt a key lesson from last year's failed counteroffensive: better to act swiftly without much publicity, depriving the Russians of the ability to prepare. Ukrainian soldiers were reportedly told about the assault just before it was about to start. President Zelenskyy only confirmed the presence of Ukrainian troops in Kursk a week after the operation began.

While the Kursk operation is still underway, and with its final outcome yet unclear, it has already changed some western perceptions of the war in favour of Ukraine. Ukraine again has initiative on the battlefield and has already achieved four objectives.

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Company: Chatham House

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