Turkeys politics on the cusp of generational change

From: Chatham House
Published: Tue May 23 2023


EXPERT COMMENT

Irrespective of the results of the presidential runoff, Turkey's election will define its politics for decades to come.

Defying the predictions of many pollsters, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's governing coalition has regained a majority in the Turkish parliament and the incumbent president is seemingly poised to win the upcoming presidential runoff.

If so, he will probably be politically comfortable as he enters a third decade at the helm of Turkish politics, and will face little challenge within the broader conservative political spectrum.

But this would also be his final term as president - given the country's constitutional term limits - and so his legacy will be front of mind.

It is difficult to imagine a post-Erdoğan Turkey, let alone a post-Erdoğan conservative/pro-Islamic politics. But probably in the not too distant future the country will be bracing itself for a generational shift in Turkey's conservative politics. Erdoğan is firmly placed to shape this change.

Aside from the narrative of fighting terrorism, doubling down on identity politics and lavish election economics such as giving public employees a 45 per cent pay rise and early retirement for millions, Erdoğan has been directly appealing to the sentiments and ego of a post-imperial country and society.

He is emphasizing the idea of Turkey's grandeur in international affairs, standing up to global powers - which largely means western ones - and having autonomy in its foreign and security policy.

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Company: Chatham House

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