Putin has limited options after the Prigozhin mutiny

From: Chatham House
Published: Tue Jun 27 2023


EXPERT COMMENT

The Wagner leader's actions have dramatically weakened Vladimir Putin's personal authority and his grip on power.

The pillars of the system that supported Putin's rule for over two decades simply buckled on 24-25 June, put to the test by around 10,000 armed Wagner mercenaries.

US authorities knew about preparations for the mutiny in advance, but Putin did not. Clearly, parts of the Russian intelligence services colluded with Prigozhin, as did sections of the military and the internal security forces.

Putin has been shown to have lost his previous ability to be the arbiter between powerful rival groups. This has undermined his public image in Russia as the all-powerful Tsar and called into question his value as a protector of elites' status and wealth.

His television appeal to the country on Saturday morning showed him in a state the Russian public has never previously seen: frightened and betraying panic. He promptly disappeared from public view and has not been seen or heard of since.

He later suffered the humiliation of having to rely on the Belarusian self-proclaimed president, Alexander Lukashenka, a man he famously despises, to negotiate terms with Prigozhin.

By the end of the day, Putin had agreed to give Prigozhin and his rebels free passage to Belarus. This humiliation was agreed despite the shooting down of several aircraft by Wagner forces, killing over ten Russian servicemen. Hours earlier, Putin had vowed to bring the mutineers to justice, labelling them traitors and accusing them of pushing Russia towards anarchy and defeat.

The disloyalty in the ranks of military and security services and the disappearance from sight of Rosgvardiya, Putin's praetorian guard, now pose a serious problem for the Russian president.

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Company: Chatham House

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